solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.uncertainty¶
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solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.
uncertainty
(obs, fx, fx_prob)[source]¶ Uncertainty (UNC) of the forecast.
UNC = base_rate * (1 - base_rate)where base_rate = 1/n sum_{i=1}^n o_i, and o_i is the observed event.
Parameters: - obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
- fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW.
- fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
Returns: unc (float) – The uncertainty [unitless], where lower values indicate the event being forecasted occurs rarely.
See also
brier_decomposition()
- 3-component decomposition of the Brier Score